Can automation help with the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic by protecting people and the economy from the worst effects? We explain what a pandemic is with references to epidemics and pandemics of the past. We also provide examples how automation can or is helping us with some big challenges presented by a the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic and pandemics in the future.
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The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has a big impact on the world
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) is on every news channel and radio station. This novel coronavirus has caused a pandemic that is more infectious than the flu and 10-20 times more deadly. According to the world health organization (WHO), pandemics are a matter of when, not if.
The following list are examples of outbreaks or epidemics that were not large enough to become pandemics.
- Bird flu (H5N1,1997): 861 confirmed cases, 455 deaths
- SARS (SARS-CoV, 2003): 8096 suspected cases, 774 deaths
- MERS (MERS-CoV, 2012): 2494 confirmed cases, 858 deaths
What is a pandemic?
The WHO defines a pandemic as the worldwide spread of a new disease. While A Dictionary of Epidemiology defines a pandemic as “an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people”.
As you consider the following terms:
- outbreak: a sudden increase in occurrences of a disease in a particular time and place. Usually a limited area or locale smaller than the population of a city.
- epidemic: an outbreak that affects many people in a population. Usually an area larger than a small city, like multiple cities to nations on a single continent.
- pandemic: an epidemic that affect multiple countries across multiple continent and potentially the world.
Each term in the above sequence has an increased impact that covers larger geographical areas or populations: outbreak < epidemic < pandemic.
Are all pandemics deadly?
Not all Pandemics are deadly. The term pandemic does not imply lethality, it implies how widely the new disease has spread. As an example, the 2009 Swine flu (H1N1, 2009) was designated as a pandemic and infected 1 in 5 people worldwide. However, it was not a very deadly pandemic with a death rate of less than 0.02%. Which is only a little higher than fates observed for endemic influenza infections.
The most well known and lethal pandemic is the Spanish Flu (1918-1920). This lethal pandemic resulted in an estimated 50 million deaths. A unique feature of the Spanish Flu is the number of people between the ages of 15-34 years of age who died. This resulted in a decrease in world population.
The following list of books describe the Spanish flu pandemic and its effects of that the world today:
- The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History
- Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How It Changed the World
Table comparing Disease Rates and Death Rates of Epidemics and Pandemics
| Epidemics (1-3) to Pandemics (4&5) | # of Cases (1-3) Disease Rate (4&5) | Death Rate |
| 1) Bird flu (H5N1,1997) | 861 | ~50% (455 dead) |
| 2) MERS (MERS-CoV, 2012) | 2494 | ~34% (858 dead) |
| 3) SARS (SARS-CoV, 2003) | 8096 | ~10% (774 dead) |
| 4) Spanish Flu (H1N1, 1918) | ~27% world population (~500 million people) | ~10% (~50 million dead) |
| 5) Swine Flu (H1N1, 2009) | ~20% world population (~1.37 billion people) | ~0.02% (~280,000 dead) |
| COVID-19 (Coronavirus, 2020) All numbers projected (see footer) | ~81% world population (~6.32 billion people) | ~0.8% (~51.9 million dead) |
Footnote: Table comparing Disease Rates and Death Rates of Epidemics (Bird flu, MERS, SARS) and Pandemics (Spanish Flu, Swine Flu) and COVID-19. Covid-19 projection of 6.32 billion people infected is based on the 81% disease rate sourced from Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID- 19 mortality and healthcare demand. The 0.8% death rate is from same report predicting 0.8% death rate in US (2.2 million) and GB (550,000) if non pharmaceutical interventions are not used.
How can automation help with Coronavirus (COVID-19)?
Automation has multiple roles in the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. It both increases testing throughput and is decreasing the time to develop potential treatments.
If people are too sick or under quarantine and can’t perform manual tasks themselves, automation also holds the promise of moving the physical world forward. This includes enabling rapid production by leveraging 3D printing:
Copper3D organizing global campaign to 3D print antimicrobial masks on a global scale
Sudanese doctor asks for 3D printable respirators in fight against COVID-19
Materialise shows 3D printed door opener for coronavirus containment efforts
We will update this article with any new information we learn about the Coronavirus (COVID-19).
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